Jay Cost at RealClearPolitics and DJ Drummond over at Wizbang are my goto guys on poll analysis. DJ points out in his â€œHow McCain can Winâ€ posting that the poll takers basically pull party affiliation numbers out of their bottoms. DJ also points out that polls are often way off from election day:
I wrote Friday about the fact that in seven of the last eighteen presidential elections – 38.9% – the polls were wrong by a big margin on the race, and so even a big lead for one candidate does not guarantee diddly.
He goes on to point out that when you look at the numbers only Republican enthusiasm controls the election. Both candidates have their hard core folks locked up, McCain has an advantage among independents. If McCain can fire up Republicans, or if Republicans can fire themselves up (which may be needed since McCain is a wet blanket to most conservatives), he can win.
DJ closes with:
It will be rough, these last 24 days, with all the dirty tricks from ACORN and the ACLU, all the lies in the media and hard-left interviews. But for all his advantages and biased allies, Obama has failed to close the deal. That door is open, and we can get there if we stick it out.
From my end, as a libertarian who votes Republican usually (Iâ€™ll explain why in a future note), Iâ€™m hardly enthused about McCain but since Obamaâ€™s supporters scare the dickens out of me, Iâ€™ll trudge on in on election day and punch a hole for McCain.