Ken Nelson

Calculated Risk compared multiple employment recessions since WWII :

Notice that modern recessions do not have steep job recovery curves.  I attribute this to higher costs of having employees (mostly governmental inspired).

Assuming this flatter recovery trajectory, we have 2 more years til we match our recent peak employment month (mid of 2008).

But when does the rise start?  Most projections have the unemployment increasing through ALL of 2010.  Place your bottom there, then rise it out (maybe!) and we are really sucking wind on jobs for three more years.