Let’s get real for a minute. Picking individual stocks in the stock market is gambling.
For instance, Carpe Diem has a chart comparing Target and Family Dollar Stores. Family Dollar is up 60% and Target is down 30% over the last year.
Clearly the mob of investors is out looking for stocks of companies that people who feel poor might shop at. But does it really make sense that Family Dollar is up so high? Well, first lets compare the two, with a twist – showing insider activity (the 1’s on the chart above the blue line):
The insiders at Family Dollar seem to like peaks. And they are active on the uptick, I suspect they know this psychologically driven gravy train won’t last forever.
Next let’s look at Family Dollar’s revenue quarterly through 2008:
1Q08 – 1,753,833
2Q08 — 1,765,777
3Q08 — 1,702,197
4Q08 — 1,832,611
A bit of a jump at the end – 7% increase. But… earnings remains relatively constant:
1Q08 – $59,289
2Q08 – $53,151
3Q08 – $64,673
4Q08 – $63,303
Now lets skip all the stuff in between and look at Target’s earnings:
$368,000
$635,000
$602,000
$1,028,000
That’s right – up almost 400%. And the revenue figures were up markedly too.
Yet’ Family Dollar stock is up 60% and Target’s down 30%
I sense that Target insiders are buying now. If smart, as rapidly as Family Dollar’s insiders are selling.
January 21st, 2009 at 6:28 am
Financial comparisons for companies are not done quarter to succeeding quarter. They compare any quarter with the same quarter in the previous year, which removes seasonal variations. For retailers particuularly, the effect of Christmas.
January 21st, 2009 at 9:24 am
Target did seem to have the Christmas effect. Even still. Earnings flat and revenues flat for a 60% increasing stock seems “speculative” at a minimum.
January 21st, 2009 at 11:20 am
In Wall Street lingo, “flat earnings” means little change from last year’s earnings in the same period. Little change within a year says nothing about whether earnings are “flat”.
January 21st, 2009 at 11:41 am
“Picking individual stocks in the stock market is gambling.” Not exactly. Gambling involves a game where outcomes are determined solely by chance. While there is a probabilistic component to investing in stocks, it does not meet the definition of gambling unless you are trading in the very short term for quick profits based only on expectations of what other traders will do. You are investing if you are buying an ownership share in an enterprise which you expect to return a profit stream from earnings in the form of increased value of the shares and/or dividend payouts. If you buy shares in a company with a solid track record of profitability in a business that you expect to continue to be profitable, say Berkshire Hathaway or Johnson & Johnson, you are investing even though you do expect some variations in the rate of profit and the market’s valuation of the shares. In between quick hit trading and buy-and-hold investing are situations where you expect to profit from shorter term variations in the stock’s value but you are acting on information that predicts a price trend with some valid mechanism for the expected change. When that crosses the threshold into gambling is in the eye of the beholder.