DJ Drummond, one of my goto guys on polling, has problems with this year’s polling:
They have fiddled with weighting and wording and various pieces of the demographics to create a false impression. You can either believe them or not, but as I have shown in the numbers for weeks now, believing the polls would be naïve at the very least.
Basically, to give Obama a “lead” they are saying there are way more Democrats than has ever existing historically. For example, in Ohio:
Ohio – 2004 DRI split was 35%/40%/25%, 2006 was 40%/37%/23%
SUSA in 2008 is using 46%/33%/20%
An 11% increase in Democratic registration? Not likely.
He goes on to point out that all the polls are headquartered and staffed by people living in “deep blue” country.
Anyway, yeah.. McCain sucks yada yada yada, and he may be behind, but not by much. The polls have agendas, just like the media.